This training course is for current and future planners, strategists, analysts and economists on the project, division and corporate level within the oil and gas industry, but also for investment banks and investors.  The individual that wishes to develop themselves as a C-level executive position in the future.

This training course is suitable for a wide range of professionals but will greatly benefit:

• Planners
• Investment analysts
• Strategists
• Economists
• Future executives
• Oil and Gas executives

With increased volatility of oil and gas prices, changing regulations, (geo)political conflicts and new technologies, planning and decision making in the oil and gas industry requires the use of multiple scenarios and real option valuation techniques to maximize potential upside and minimize potential downside. Over the last four decades, scenario planning has become the planning methodology of choice by all major players in the field. Featuring the latest artificial intelligence and dynamic planning tools, this training course will enable you to help your company to outsmart the competition.

 This training course will feature:

• The history and state of the art scenario planning
• The use of Artificial Intelligence and Big Data Analysis
• Real option valuation techniques to help decision making (both up- and downstream)
• Scenario planning as a process within the organization
• Facilitation and reporting techniques

By the end of this training course, participants will be able to:

• Analyze relevant economic, technological, legal and social trends using big data analysis
• Develop multiple realistic scenarios for your company
• Create scenarios for planning and decision-making purposes
• Facilitate scenario planning workshops
• Present to board level decision makers with impact

Day One: History and Theory of Scenario Planning

• Overview of the Course
• Introductions
• History of Scenario Planning
• Theory of Scenario Based Strategy
• Trend Analyses Using Artificial Intelligence and Big Data
• Horizon Scanning and Early Warning Systems

Day Two: Exploring the World of Oil & Gas

• Case Studies and Examples
• Defining Predetermined Elements and Key Uncertainties
• Deep Dive: Modelling
• Developing Scenario Frameworks
• Facilitating Scenario Workshops

Day Three: Developing Scenarios

• Steps in Developing Scenarios and the Power of Stories
• Creating Narratives and Timelines
• Quantification of Scenarios
• Integrating Qualitative and Quantities Material
• Presenting Scenarios to Decision Makers, Executives and Stakeholders

Day Four: Using Scenarios (Real Options)

• Introduction to Real Options Theory
• Call and Put Options in Up- and Downstream Investments
• Stress Testing and Wind Tunnelling Existing Strategies
• Developing Real Options to Minimize Downside Risk and Maximize Upside Potential
• Quantification of Options Using a Binominal Approach
• Using Options Theory to Valuate Investments and Support Decision Making

Day Five: Strategy, Planning and Taking it Home

• Linking Scenarios and Options to Strategy, Planning and Budgeting Processes
• Transferring the Methodology to your Existing Strategy and Planning Process
• Essential Soft Skills, Personal and Team Competences
• Road Mapping Next Steps
• Evaluation of the Course